Big Bang

Le CERN, l’Organisation européenne pour la recherche nucléaire, est un prestigieux laboratoire à Genève. Les instruments qu’utilise le CERN sont des accélérateurs et des détecteurs de particules. Les accélérateurs portent des faisceaux de particules à des énergies élevées pour les faire entrer en collision avec d'autres faisceaux ou avec des cibles fixes.

Le Grand collisionneur de hadrons (LHC) est un gigantesque instrument scientifique situé près de Genève à environ 100 mètres sous terre. En faisant entrer en collision frontale les deux faisceaux à une vitesse proche de celle de la lumière et à de très hautes énergies, le LHC recrée les conditions qui existaient juste après le Big Bang.

Le 30 mars 2010, deux faisceaux de protons accélérés dans le LHC au Cern à Genève ont été parfaitement alignés et provoqué presqu’immédiatement les premières collisions de protons à une énergie qu’aucun être humain n’avaient encore pu observer jusqu’à présent. Dans les prochaines semaines, ces expériences vont être renouvelées.

Frederic Gaspoz

Satellite Communication

Navigation system performance requirements are defined for single aircraft and for the total system that includes the Signal-In–Space, the airborne equipment, and the ability of the aircraft to fly the desired trajectory. All the navigation aids must fulfill four basic performance requirements in order to be certified i.e. continuity, availability, integrity and accuracy.

i. Continuity: It is the ability of the entire system to carry out its function without interruption during planned operating period.

ii. Availability: It is the ability of the system to transmit signals of the required quality most of the time. This is a critical requirement in landing guidance and for this reason stand by equipment is added to ground-based aids.

iii. Integrity: It is the ability of the navigational aid (s) to warn the pilot that
it has failed or giving incorrect message.

iv. Accuracy: It is the ability of the navigational aid(s) is to guide the path of an aircraft within pre- defined tolerances.

Galileo is Europa’s contribution to the next generation Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) intended to provide the European Nations with greater independence by delivering a civil controlled satellite based navigation system. Implementation of Galileo is expected to stimulate growth in the use of GNSS technology in intermodal transport systems thereby improving mobility safety and quality of life whilst also stimulating economic growth in the areas of receiver manufactures and application development. When considering the possibility of a failure of GPS to maintain a service, the implications for commercial customer in the fields such as telecom, location based services and financial community are clearly not acceptable. For these reasons and in consideration of the potential impacts on European business, the European Commission (EC) and the European Space Agency (ESA) has embarked on the definition phase of Galileo. The current base line for Galileo calls for a constellation of around 30 middle Earth orbiting (MEO) satellites. The option of including some GEOS in the constellation is not rule out and indeed. Some interesting options could become available if GEOS are used to complement the system. The option of delivering a search and rescue service is also being analyzed for both technical and economic viability.

Frederic Gaspoz

Bisphénol A

Les bébés absorbent trop de bisphénol A (BPA). Dans une étude de l’EPFZ, une chercheuse a calculé les quantités de BPA absorbées par les différentes catégories de populations. Les bébés et les petits enfants sont les plus touchés car ils sont souvent nourris à l'aide de biberons en polycarbonates. L'Union européenne limite actuellement l'absorption de cette substance dans les aliments à 50 microgrammes par kilo de poids corporel. Le Canada, plus prudent, a décidé d'interdire le BPA dans les biberons. De nouvelles études sur des rats montrent que de faibles quantités peuvent déjà influencer le développement de ces animaux. Le BPA agit en effet sur le système hormonal comme les oestrogènes. Il peut ainsi influencer le développement foetal des garçons et de leurs organes génitaux.

Il est donc préférable d’utiliser des biberons en verre.

L'étude a identifié 17 sources par lesquelles les consommateurs avalent du bisphénol. Le BPA entre dans la fabrication de matières plastiques destinées à entrer en contact avec des produits alimentaires. Il se trouve dans les revêtements internes des boîtes de conserve et des cannettes de boissons. On le trouve aussi dans l'air, l'eau et les plombages. Les personnes qui mangent beaucoup de conserves ou qui réchauffent leurs repas dans des barquettes en plastique au micro-onde sont plus exposées.

Frederic Gaspoz

Glioblastome

Le glioblastome est la tumeur du cerveau la plus fréquente et la plus agressive. Le traitement peut comprendre de la chimiothérapie, de la radiothérapie et de la chirurgie. L'espérance de vie de cette maladie a peu évolué et ne dépasse pas les 10%. La recherche développe actuellement des vaccins (à base de cellule prélevées chez le patients et ajoutées à des protéines de la tumeur).

Frederic Gaspoz

Education

Education. Many cross-country studies have found positive and statistically significant correlations between schooling and growth rates of per capita GDP—on the order of 0.3% faster annual growth over a 30-year period from an additional one year of schooling. As economies grow rapidly, they may face shortages of skilled workers, meaning that more years of schooling are a prerequisite for the next stage of economic development. Enrolment rates have increased dramatically over the past 30 years, on average over 5% per year, particularly in higher education (around 14%).
Frederic Gaspoz

Opération Earth Hour

Pour la 4e année, le WWF lance l’opération Earth Hour: éteindre toute source lumineuse de 20h30 à 21h30, heure locale, ce soir. “60 minutes pour la planète” devrait provoquer une vague sombre qui parcourra la Terre d’Est en Ouest en commençant par l’océan Pacifique. L’objectif est de symboliser l’engagement de tous dans la lutte contre le dérèglement climatique, cent jours après l’échec de Copenhague sur le climat.
Frederic Gaspoz

Thon rouge au Japon

Thon rouge menacé :
Le Japon et ses alliés ont rejeté la proposition d'inscrire le thon rouge comme espèce sauvage menacée, afin d'en interdire le commerce international et de protéger cette population victime de surpêche.
Frederic Gaspoz

Tsunamigenesis

 

 

Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic 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Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic 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Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz, Frederic Gaspoz,

 

 

Satellite & GIS

Satellite tsunamigenic data can be utilized in three phases of operation: mitigation phase, response phase and recovery phase. Satellite data integrated with Geographic Information System can be used as inputs to logistic planning for response scenarios, evacuation routes planning and public education programs. Multi - spatial, multi - temporal and multi - spectral satellite data are required.
Frederic Gaspoz

CO2

Mesurer le CO2 : Capteurs constitués de pastilles attachées à la surface interne d'un récipient transparent. Colorants sont inclus dans une matrice. Détecteur mesure la modification de la fluorescence émise par le colorant selon la concentration en CO2 : CO2 de 0 à 25% à pression atmosphérique, 10-250 hPa pCO2, temps de réponse: 3 min pour le changement de 2% à 5%, plage de température: 15 à 45 ° C.

Frederic Gaspoz

Ethanol

Éthanol cellulosique:
L’éthanol cellulosique est un carburant fabriqué à partir de déchets agricoles et ligneux ainsi que d’arbres à croissance rapide. Son potentiel de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est supérieur à celui de l’éthanol traditionnel fabriqué à partir de céréales, notamment le maïs. L’éthanol cellulosique peut être ajouté à l’essence et utilisé dans tous les véhicules d’aujourd’hui. Ce carburant à émissions ultrafaibles de CO2 nécessite des technologies de transformation complexes, allant de la dégradation enzymatique à la gazéification.
Frederic Gaspoz

Static electricity

Static electricity is a frequent cause of accidents or incidents, especially in industries at risk of fire or explosion. These phenomena depend on both environmental conditions (relative humidity) and a large number of parameters (materials, surface condition, relative speed, etc.).
Frederic Gaspoz

Asbestos

Asbestos risk :
Asbestos is more likely to be found in buildings built or refurbished before the year 2000. Anyone who is involved in building maintenance is potentially at risk if they disturb asbestos. The danger lies in any activity that disturbs the asbestos fibres, including removal, drilling, sanding and cutting. Asbestos can be found in many parts of a building including: fire protection of structural steel, thermal and acoustic insulation, paints and textured coatings, insulating boards used as fire protection on doors, around structural steel wallboards and ceiling tiles, asbestos cement used as corrugated roof panels, flat asbestos sheets used in partitioning water tanks, pipes and gutters. Frederic Gaspoz

Risques sismiques

Frederic Gaspoz

Seismic Hazard

Seismic Hazard Map of the European-Mediterranean region:
http://ping.fm/2F7Zl
by the EU Seismological Commission
Frederic Gaspoz

Wind Power

Assessing on-line the prediction risk of short-term wind power forecasts : first stage consists in computing confidence intervals. Resampling approach used. To account for the non-linearity of the power curve and the cut-off effect, errors are classified using appropriate sets.

Glaciology

Modelling of calibration of glacier volume-area relations to predict evolution and risk :
http://ping.fm/PXjfq
Frederic Gaspoz

Biodiversité

BIODIVERSITE DES ALPES: Les écosystèmes alpins sont caractérisés par une grande biodiversité et assurent d'importantes fonctions. Une végétation diversifiée est plus productive, mieux protégée contre les événements extrêmes, permet de mieux stabiliser le sol. Les points focaux sont les dommages provoqués par les avalanches, l’exploitation humaine ou encore l'apport de substances nutritives. Frederic Gaspoz

Nivologie

Nivologie et risques d’avalanches

Consulter l’échelle européenne sur:
http://ping.fm/C6c5l

Frederic Gaspoz

Risk Europe (www.risk-europe.com) in Mai 2010 will bring together senior practitioners, academics, and think-tank advisors to lead over 40 sessions covering the complete spectrum of risk. Frederic Gaspoz

Frederic Gaspoz

Check New Article by Frederic Gaspoz :
http://ping.fm/4axp3
Frederic Gaspoz on Risk & Rationality

Physicians

Risk reduction for practicing physicians:
Avoid medical malpractice risk
Shift risk to another party
Avoid the most common insurance pitfalls
Get the best insurance coverage for your individual situation
Use indemnification and joint-defense agreements
Manage non-professional risk including automotive, defamation, advertising injury, general liability, workers’ compensation, and unfair trade practices
Bulletproofing Your Medical Practice: Risk Management Techniques for Physicians That Work
Sheldon S. Hendler Ph.D., M.D.
Softcover, 252 pages
ISBN 1892904144
978-1892904140
SEAK, Inc.
September 2000

Déforestation

La déforestation est responsable d'environ 20% des émissions mondiales de CO2. La préservation des forêts tropicales est donc prioritaire dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Et les milliards de dollars évalués par le rapport Stern en 2007 pour lutter contre la déforestation ont fait tourner des têtes: le chantage à la tronçonneuse est devenu une arme diplomatique pour les pays du Sud. Mais il y a danger à réduire les enjeux liés à la forêt à leur seule capacité de stockage de carbone et la lutte contre la déforestation à une question d'argent.

La déforestation est avant tout un problème de politiques et de gouvernance: résoudre les conflits fonciers ou stopper l'expansion des agrocarburants doivent être des priorités. Si on refuse de s'attaquer aux causes profondes du phénomène, notamment la surconsommation de viande, de papier et d'énergie dans les pays du Nord, le combat contre la déforestation risque de se réduire à faire protéger par des militaires quelques îlots de forêts perdus au milieu de champs de soja ou d'huile de palme. Et les communautés qui dépendent des forêts risquent fort d'être une fois encore les grands perdants.

CO2

Environmental risk & CO2 : Carbon experts remain optimistic about federal cap-and-trade legislation in the US, but believe regional schemes can step into the breach if a bill is not passed by the US Congress.

Rationality

Is it possible for people to be rational about risk?
(by Frederic Gaspoz)
In the same way that 1 kilogram is always 1 kilogram and 1 hour is always 1 hour, risk can be measured, and a certain risk is always the same risk. Is it really like this? An object of 1 kilogram on earth has another weight on the moon. According to Einstein, even time is relative. For a young sportsman 1 kilogram is nothing, for an old lady 1 kilogram is heavy. Sometimes, for example when one is totally absorbed in something, an hour passes very quickly; another time, for example when one forces oneself to do something, one has perhaps the subjective feeling that the hour is endless. Also, risk is dependent on the reference system. Moreover, there is no objective physical measure for risk. Risk is a subjective construct and thus highly dependent on differences in individual perception and judgement.
Frederic Gaspoz

Globalization

What we are witnessing is the impact of globalisation on a series of existing global systems, such as the global market and global politics. The sum of these systems does not yet constitute a system itself. Instead, we should see globalization as a process which transforms without eradicating the institutions and features of the political landscape in which it is at work. It does not entail the end of territorial geography or ethnicity, much less so religion: these still co-exist in complex inter-relationships. It may be changing the nature of social structures such as the state and the nation but neither the state nor the nation have been replaced.
Frederic Gaspoz

Book recommendation by Frederic Gaspoz

Quantitative Risk Management:
Concepts, Techniques, and Tools
Alexander J. McNeil, Rüdiger Frey, & Paul Embrechts
One of the Top 10 Technical Books of 2006 on Financial Engineering by Financial Engineering News

Cloth | 2005 | $85.00 / £59.00
608 pp. | 6 x 9 | 86 line illus. 33 tables.


Shopping Cart | Reviews | Table of Contents
Chapter 1 [PDF]



The implementation of sound quantitative risk models is a vital concern for all financial institutions, and this trend has accelerated in recent years with regulatory processes such as Basel II. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the theoretical concepts and modelling techniques of quantitative risk management and equips readers--whether financial risk analysts, actuaries, regulators, or students of quantitative finance--with practical tools to solve real-world problems. The authors cover methods for market, credit, and operational risk modelling; place standard industry approaches on a more formal footing; and describe recent developments that go beyond, and address main deficiencies of, current practice.

The book's methodology draws on diverse quantitative disciplines, from mathematical finance through statistics and econometrics to actuarial mathematics. Main concepts discussed include loss distributions, risk measures, and risk aggregation and allocation principles. A main theme is the need to satisfactorily address extreme outcomes and the dependence of key risk drivers. The techniques required derive from multivariate statistical analysis, financial time series modelling, copulas, and extreme value theory. A more technical chapter addresses credit derivatives. Based on courses taught to masters students and professionals, this book is a unique and fundamental reference that is set to become a standard in the field.

How To Improve Your Policy

Insurance policies typically are so hard to read that customers have been conditioned to avoid thinking critically about how their wording can be improved. The pain from trying to understand how a policy's pieces come together is akin to the shock administered to a lab mouse every time it goes for some cheese. After a few jolts, insurance buyers tend to skim over many policy provisions, make sure the limits and price are right, and move on to the next task for the day.

But it usually pays off to spend a day or two reading the entire policy carefully and thinking of ways to make the policy do exactly what you want it to do. Ask yourself "what is my dream coverage"? Then explore ways to work language providing that coverage into your policy. Our firm was recently involved in a case with a client whose property policy had a complicated valuation provision in which the coverage provided was defined to be "the lesser of" X, Y or Z, given the circumstance of the loss. Upon renewal, the policyholder asked the broker, "Why can't the minimum payout always be X?" Good question. The broker changed the wording to say that losses are valued simply as X and the underwriter accepted the change. When a claim arose, the insurance company's claims handler instinctively began asking questions about Y and Z, but we quickly pointed to the language in the policy and avoided having to answer those questions. We also made sure that the client got paid X, which was more than Y or Z.

Rationality and public risk management

Citizen protests have resulted, in part, from the perceived failure of government and industry to protect the health and safety of people. Acts of civil disobedience, in turn, have also helped to mobilize public awareness of a variety of environmental risks.
In the last 10 years, around 50 % of attempted sitings of oil refineries have failed because of public opposition. Industry spokespeople attribute the blocking of oil refineries, nuclear reactors and toxic waste dumps to public ignorance. They charge that nisguided and irratinoal citizens have successfully delayed so many technological facilities, driving up their costs, that wise investors now avoid them.
Industry sympathizers claim that aversion to societal risks stems not so much from any real or apparent danger but from group attitudes that are anti-industry, antiogovernment, and antiscience.
Risk assessment include 3 main stages :
1. identification of some public or societal hazard
2. estimation of the level and extent of potential harm associated with it
3. evaluation of the acceptability of the danger relative to other hazards.
Once these tasks are accomplished, policymakers then determine the best way to accomplish risk management of a particular public threat - for example, through regulation, prohibition, or taxation.